MEPS hot rolled coil prices reached a two-year high in December 2017, due to strong demand from the construction, automotive, and manufacturing industries. The index rose by 5.8% from the previous month to reach $600 per tonne, a level not seen since the end of 2015.
The resurgence in demand was driven by a combination of factors, including improving economic conditions in Europe and Asia, as well as some recovery in the US market. In particular, the construction sector saw a pick-up in activity, supported by strong government investment in infrastructure projects.
The automotive industry also remained a key driver of demand for hot rolled coil, with production continuing to rise in a number of major markets, including China, the US, and Europe. This was reflected in the strong performance of steelmakers such as ArcelorMittal, which saw its sales volumes increase by 5.2% in the third quarter of 2017.
Looking ahead, analysts expect hot rolled coil prices to remain firm in the first half of 2018, driven by ongoing demand from the construction and automotive sectors. However, there are some concerns that strong growth in steel production, particularly in China, could lead to oversupply and put downward pressure on prices.
MEPS also noted that there were a number of downside risks to the outlook for the steel market, including the threat of a trade war between the US and China, as well as the potential impact of Brexit on European demand. Nevertheless, the organisation remained bullish about the prospects for hot rolled coil prices in the short to medium term, citing strong underlying demand fundamentals and ongoing supply constraints in some regions.
Overall, the hot rolled coil market appears to be in a healthy state, with robust demand and supply constraints supporting prices at elevated levels. While there are certainly some risks to the outlook for the sector, there seems to be little reason to believe that the recent rally in hot rolled coil prices is on the verge of reversing. As such, steel producers and consumers alike are likely to continue closely monitoring market developments in the months ahead, seeking to position themselves appropriately in what promises to be an exciting and dynamic market.